Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 0.008599 0.009695 0.010896 0.012313 0.013942 0.015762 0.017955
2024-12-22 0.006584 0.007994 0.009675 0.011838 0.014566 0.017916 0.022380
2024-12-29 0.005632 0.007178 0.009127 0.011787 0.015362 0.020054 0.026768
2025-01-05 0.005187 0.006884 0.009124 0.012338 0.016898 0.023241 0.032911
2025-01-12 0.004527 0.006201 0.008494 0.011917 0.016992 0.024391 0.036279
2025-01-19 0.004029 0.005675 0.008002 0.011601 0.017150 0.025593 0.039826
2025-01-26 0.003703 0.005352 0.007754 0.011594 0.017739 0.027479 0.044677
2025-02-02 0.003560 0.005278 0.007857 0.012118 0.019198 0.030896 0.052566
2025-02-09 0.003303 0.005003 0.007620 0.012068 0.019702 0.032778 0.058037
2025-02-16 0.003117 0.004819 0.007505 0.012197 0.020508 0.035258 0.064966
2025-02-23 0.002892 0.004554 0.007231 0.012024 0.020754 0.036748 0.070201
2025-03-02 0.002749 0.004408 0.007140 0.012152 0.021549 0.039339 0.078041
2025-03-09 0.002574 0.004202 0.006942 0.012094 0.022039 0.041505 0.085595
2025-03-16 0.002343 0.003884 0.006528 0.011606 0.021658 0.041917 0.089470
2025-03-23 0.002204 0.003716 0.006360 0.011558 0.022132 0.044134 0.097845
2025-03-30 0.002163 0.003715 0.006492 0.012096 0.023859 0.049254 0.114146
2025-04-06 0.001996 0.003474 0.006161 0.011685 0.023541 0.049826 0.119262
2025-04-13 0.001858 0.003276 0.005893 0.011375 0.023406 0.050791 0.125589
2025-04-20 0.001769 0.003163 0.005779 0.011369 0.023937 0.053387 0.136850
2025-04-27 0.001746 0.003173 0.005905 0.011881 0.025708 0.059244 0.158606
2025-05-04 0.001663 0.003061 0.005778 0.011833 0.026162 0.061887 0.171584
2025-05-11 0.001604 0.002991 0.005732 0.011959 0.027050 0.065786 0.189348
2025-05-18 0.001521 0.002867 0.005563 0.011789 0.027186 0.067702 0.201242